Scouting the Political Landscape

As presidential candidates stake out their positions on key priorities and debate the merits of policy platforms in the 2016 election, it's unlikely that agricultural issues will dominate the headlines or get captured in soundbites. That doesn't mean, however, that the election cycle won't have a significant impact on farmers, growers and resellers.

Bruce Knight, principal and founder of Strategic Conservation Solutions, believes American agriculture is fortunate to be in a period when growers primarily base many farming decisions on the marketplace.

"The upcoming election won't determine the size and scope of a farm bill or determine farm prosperity, but it could impact areas related to immigration or regulatory friction," he says.

Additionally, not only is 2016 a presidential election year, it's the last year of President Barack Obama's second term. That's when presidents often turn their attention to their legacy issues.

Jeffrey Sands, manager of federal government relations for Syngenta, believes that international trade and energy are among the legacy issues that ag interests might be able to work on with the Obama administration during its waning months.

Below, in no particular order, are some important political developments agricultural policy experts think growers and resellers should be following over the next 12 to 15 months:

• Trade Pact Delay. Negotiations have concluded on the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and now it's up to Congress to pass the massive trade deal among 12 Pacific Rim countries. Many view the deal as beneficial for American agriculture, but some analysts think Congress won't act on the deal until after the 2016 election cycle.
  
  "Trade expansion could face some setbacks as a result of 2016 campaigning and concerns about specific provisions that make up the agreement," says Sara Wyant, editor of Agri-Pulse. "But I think Congress will ultimately pass the Trans-Pacific Partnership."


• Immigration Reform Challenges. The majority in Congress has indicated that it is not particularly interested in working with the president on immigration in 2016. While rhetoric about immigration may be part of the campaign trail, inactivity will likely continue on any plans to overhaul the program in the immediate future.


• Regulatory Focus. Many experts expect to see regulatory action increase significantly as agency heads have been charged with putting the finishing touches on key legacy issues in the final hours of the Obama administration. Although a federal court ruled in late 2015 that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) overstepped its authority on the Waters of the United States rule, similar proposals may become talking points for various groups in an attempt to influence campaigns.
  
  Jane DeMarchi, vice president of government and regulatory affairs at the American Seed Trade Association, believes regulatory agencies will have a huge impact on policies that will continue to affect agriculture into the next administration.
  
  "Where we have struggled in the past is that a lot of blame for problems is placed on agriculture, instead of looking to agriculture to be part of the solution," DeMarchi says.


• Biotech Acceptance. Known as the Coordinated Framework, a proposed effort to modernize the regulatory channels for approving new biotech traits within three federal agencies (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food and Drug Administration, and EPA) is speeding up the conversation regarding biotechnology acceptance. A federal bill to standardize how food containing genetically modified ingredients is labeled is also moving through Congress.
  
  While Agri-Pulse's Wyant acknowledges that progress is being made, biotech still faces strong headwinds from special interest groups. "The whole area of biotech regulatory approvals is still unsettled," she cautions, adding that this is an example where ag policy is influenced by regulation or litigation, rather than legislation.


• Energy and Climate Change. This is another legacy area where agricultural interests may be able to work with the Obama administration, but regulatory and congressional action late in 2015 impacted the possibilities.

"The key thing is putting ourselves in front of these legacy issues. We have to drive home the importance of rural America inside the beltway and to the presidential hopefuls."

The EPA's recent release of a new renewable fuel standard (RFS) for 2014, 2015 and 2016 means that more biofuels will be blended in 2016 when compared with the agency's May proposal. But the prospect of additional blending of biofuels in future years is uncertain because of the EPA's movement away from the volumes in the RFS statute. Efforts to roll back the RFS or make it less ambitious could impact the marketplace and demand for commodities, as well as slow the overall demand for biofuels, says John Fuher, director of legislative affairs for Growth Energy.

Looking Forward

Although the emphasis may not be on agriculture as an industry in this election cycle, there's still a lot at stake for agribusiness. Farmers and their business partners alike need to measure what opportunities are available to move agricultural priorities forward.

"The key thing is putting ourselves in front of these legacy issues," Sands says. "We have to drive home the importance of rural America inside the beltway and to the presidential hopefuls."